← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 38% | 38% | 2.54 | fair |
| Elazigspor win | 33% | 32% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.38 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elazigspor | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 455.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1457.99 | 1605.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.50 | 21.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.42 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |