← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buyuksehyr win | 35% | 39% | 2.76 | value: +8% |
| Kayserispor win | 35% | 32% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Buyuksehyr | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1565.72 | 1605.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.87 | 44.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 28.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |