← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Mon, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 38% | 42% | 2.57 | value: +9% |
| Kasimpasa win | 33% | 29% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kasimpasa | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 34.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1530.05 | 1631.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.60 | -35.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 33.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |