← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 55% | 50% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.84 | value: +10% |
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 20% | 21% | 4.95 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Mersin Idman Yurdu |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 153.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1600.00 | 1489.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 52.73 | -0.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 32.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.87 |
| state index | 1.08 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |