← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 40% | 37% | 2.46 | fair |
| Besiktas win | 31% | 37% | 3.11 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Besiktas | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 275.00 | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1693.32 | 1740.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.28 | 20.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 39.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.74 |
| state index | 0.71 | 1.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |