← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Fri, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 43% | 44% | 2.27 | fair |
| Buyuksehyr win | 29% | 29% | 3.36 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genclerbirligi | Buyuksehyr |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 425.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1584.92 | 1563.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.73 | -11.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 30.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |