← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 42% | 37% | 2.31 | fair |
| Gaziantep win | 29% | 30% | 3.33 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.42 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gaziantep | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1589.54 | 1664.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.71 | 8.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 25.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.55 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |