← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eskisehirspor win | 72% | 46% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 31% | 5.50 | value: +69% |
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 11% | 24% | 9.00 | value: +113% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eskisehirspor | Mersin Idman Yurdu |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1579.96 | 1508.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.74 | -23.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 47.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.27 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |