← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 66% | 46% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 28% | 4.50 | value: +28% |
| Ankaragücü win | 13% | 25% | 7.00 | value: +76% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ankaragücü | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 646.00 | 646.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1361.03 | 1560.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.90 | 0.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| league points | 11.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.24 |
| state index | -2.03 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |