← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 61% | 48% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +10% |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 17% | 26% | 5.50 | value: +43% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kardemir Karabukspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1010.00 | 249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1553.52 | 1666.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.93 | -23.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.64 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |