← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 74% | 57% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 29% | 6.00 | value: +76% |
| Orduspor win | 9% | 14% | 11.00 | value: +55% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Orduspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1760.15 | 1538.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.14 | 6.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 71.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 1.28 |
| state index | 1.34 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |