← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 47% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 25% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mersin Idman Yurdu | Kardemir Karabukspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1003.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1525.77 | 1536.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.65 | 2.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 42.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |