← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 84% | 65% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 23% | 9.00 | value: +106% |
| Ankaragücü win | 6% | 12% | 17.00 | value: +110% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gaziantep | Ankaragücü |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 89.00 | 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1639.63 | 1363.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.73 | -35.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| league points | 42.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.34 |
| state index | 1.46 | -2.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |