← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Mon, Mar 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 39% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +5% |
| Buyuksehyr win | 32% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Buyuksehyr | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1554.92 | 1684.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.33 | -7.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 43.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.71 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |