← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 53% | 40% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +5% |
| Trabzonspor win | 21% | 32% | 4.75 | value: +51% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 845.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1762.56 | 1737.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.92 | -7.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| league points | 70.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 1.71 |
| state index | 1.63 | 0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |