← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Mon, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 66% | 60% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +10% |
| Manisaspor win | 12% | 15% | 8.00 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Besiktas | Manisaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 231.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1677.20 | 1491.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.91 | -28.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 50.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.07 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |