← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 43% | 49% | 2.20 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Samsunspor win | 28% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 626.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1560.57 | 1517.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.74 | 41.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 37.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |