← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 51% | 48% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 22% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gaziantep | Kardemir Karabukspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 77.00 | 991.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1612.21 | 1537.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.58 | 33.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 36.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |