← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 41% | 50% | 2.30 | value: +14% |
| Galatasaray win | 32% | 24% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 655.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1784.62 | 1760.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.41 | 43.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| league points | 60.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.30 |
| state index | 1.34 | 1.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |