← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 42% | 40% | 2.25 | fair |
| Antalyaspor win | 30% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kardemir Karabukspor | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 984.00 | 1226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1529.43 | 1536.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.28 | -25.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 34.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.21 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |