← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eskisehirspor win | 39% | 31% | 2.40 | fair |
| Bursaspor win | 33% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eskisehirspor | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1594.95 | 1667.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.12 | 37.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.45 |
| state index | 0.43 | 1.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |