← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 84% | 68% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 19% | 8.50 | value: +65% |
| Ankaragücü win | 4% | 13% | 26.00 | value: +228% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ankaragücü | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 617.00 | 647.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1382.68 | 1780.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.90 | -6.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 11.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 1.97 |
| state index | -1.95 | 0.97 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |