← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 53% | 48% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Manisaspor win | 20% | 23% | 5.00 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Manisaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 612.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1559.58 | 1486.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.19 | -34.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 34.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |