← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 39% | 43% | 2.38 | value: +3% |
| Buyuksehyr win | 32% | 27% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gaziantep | Buyuksehyr |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 63.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1597.88 | 1576.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.29 | 3.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 32.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |