← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 41% | 38% | 2.30 | fair |
| Trabzonspor win | 30% | 33% | 3.10 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Besiktas | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 216.00 | 824.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1690.40 | 1724.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.19 | -20.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 49.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.64 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |