← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eskisehirspor win | 70% | 44% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 29% | 5.00 | value: +44% |
| Ankaragücü win | 11% | 27% | 9.00 | value: +147% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ankaragücü | Eskisehirspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 611.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1393.94 | 1583.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.19 | 4.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 11.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.39 | 1.46 |
| state index | -1.79 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |