← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 40% | 45% | 2.38 | value: +8% |
| Sivasspor win | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genclerbirligi | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 56.00 | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1605.18 | 1609.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.71 | 1.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| league points | 43.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.56 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |