← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 50% | 44% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Besiktas win | 22% | 27% | 4.33 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 209.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1731.01 | 1697.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.71 | -32.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| league points | 60.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 1.81 |
| state index | 1.13 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |