← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 36% | 28% | 2.60 | fair |
| Bursaspor win | 35% | 42% | 2.75 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Samsunspor | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 239.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1510.50 | 1644.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.72 | 20.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.33 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |