← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 82% | 58% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 23% | 7.50 | value: +70% |
| Ankaragücü win | 5% | 19% | 17.00 | value: +230% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kardemir Karabukspor | Ankaragücü |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 969.00 | 604.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1533.68 | 1398.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.19 | -52.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 31.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.41 |
| state index | 0.82 | -1.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |