← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 46% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Eskisehirspor win | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eskisehirspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 634.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1569.46 | 1786.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.42 | -23.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 38.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |