← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 45% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.30 | value: +19% |
| Orduspor win | 26% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gaziantep | Orduspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 49.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1576.63 | 1539.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.87 | 45.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 26.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |