← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 61% | 21% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.00 | value: +15% |
| Ankaragücü win | 16% | 50% | 6.00 | value: +200% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ankaragücü | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 597.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1415.42 | 1493.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.80 | 24.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 11.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.42 | 0.88 |
| state index | -1.73 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |