← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 55% | 40% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +10% |
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 18% | 27% | 5.50 | value: +51% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mersin Idman Yurdu | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1524.50 | 1721.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.30 | 1.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| league points | 33.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.19 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |