← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 36% | 23% | 2.60 | fair |
| Eskisehirspor win | 35% | 44% | 2.70 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Samsunspor | Eskisehirspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 226.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1476.18 | 1600.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.55 | 0.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 20.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.52 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |