← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 52% | 63% | 1.80 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 22% | 15% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kardemir Karabukspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 956.00 | 621.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1504.46 | 1796.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.05 | -24.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 25.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.04 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |