← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 65% | 54% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.33 | value: +17% |
| Kayserispor win | 13% | 19% | 7.50 | value: +44% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 590.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1716.97 | 1570.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.07 | 10.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| league points | 54.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.16 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |