← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Thu, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivasspor win | 37% | 27% | 2.50 | fair |
| Besiktas win | 34% | 45% | 2.80 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sivasspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 496.00 | 192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1615.11 | 1692.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.58 | -25.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| league points | 41.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.84 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |