← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Thu, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buyuksehyr win | 53% | 49% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 21% | 24% | 4.75 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Buyuksehyr | Kardemir Karabukspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 953.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1560.92 | 1501.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.67 | 18.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 33.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |