← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Mon, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 46% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Samsunspor win | 26% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kardemir Karabukspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 950.00 | 220.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1493.10 | 1484.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.94 | 24.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |