← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Mon, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eskisehirspor win | 38% | 47% | 2.50 | value: +17% |
| Buyuksehyr win | 32% | 23% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eskisehirspor | Buyuksehyr |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1588.83 | 1572.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.02 | 18.15 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 35.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |