← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Mon, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manisaspor win | 59% | 34% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +12% |
| Ankaragücü win | 16% | 36% | 5.50 | value: +96% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ankaragücü | Manisaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 585.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1433.58 | 1510.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.28 | -36.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 11.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.46 | 1.08 |
| state index | -1.54 | -1.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |