← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 36% | 42% | 2.63 | value: +10% |
| Sivasspor win | 35% | 28% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mersin Idman Yurdu | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1528.10 | 1596.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.75 | 19.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| league points | 30.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.58 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |