← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 41% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +3% |
| Genclerbirligi win | 30% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 584.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1581.04 | 1615.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.04 | 23.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 33.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.67 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |