← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 52% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +13% |
| Orduspor win | 21% | 15% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bursaspor | Orduspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 35.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1629.80 | 1525.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.96 | 26.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |