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Antalyaspor 2–1 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Trabzonspor win43%45%2.20fair
Antalyaspor win29%24%3.20fair
Draw28%31%3.40value: +5%

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporTrabzonspor
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1190.00795.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
elo1561.591749.63
elo momentum (last 5)7.8211.88
form points (last 5)5.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.002.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.403.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
league points29.0042.00
league rank12.004.00
matches since blank6.008.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win4.000.00
rest days3.003.00
season ppg1.211.75
state index-0.021.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40