← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Thu, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 57% | 67% | 1.67 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
| Samsunspor win | 17% | 11% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Samsunspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 216.00 | 611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1458.90 | 1812.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.23 | 1.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 17.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 2.09 |
| state index | -0.70 | 1.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |