← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Wed, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 55% | 48% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +13% |
| Bursaspor win | 20% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trabzonspor | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 792.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1744.14 | 1635.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.68 | -4.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 39.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.26 |
| state index | 1.46 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |