← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Wed, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 47% | 39% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +8% |
| Gaziantep win | 24% | 29% | 4.00 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genclerbirligi | Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 31.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1607.16 | 1601.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.50 | 6.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 37.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |