← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 43% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Manisaspor win | 28% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kardemir Karabukspor | Manisaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 942.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1483.49 | 1530.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.67 | -23.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 18.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |